Buffalo Sabres at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals1
- Zach BensonAssists1
- Zach BensonPoints2
Kings- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:35Zach Benson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (15), Beck Malenstyn (6)4–1
- P312:11Rasmus Dahlin Goal (15) , assists: none3–1
- P311:12Sam Carrick Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (24), Zach Metsa (4)2–1
- P24:05Tage Thompson Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (24), Mattias Samuelsson (27)1–1
- P110:48Artemi Panarin Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (22), Adrian Kempe (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:48Artemi Panarin Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (22), Adrian Kempe (33)BUF 0 – 1 LA · LA 46% → 62% +16LA 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P24:05Tage Thompson Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (24), Mattias Samuelsson (27)BUF 1 – 1 LA · BUF 35% → 53% +18BUF 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P311:12Sam Carrick Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (24), Zach Metsa (4)BUF 2 – 1 LA · BUF 52% → 84% +32BUF 52% → 84%+32 pts
- P312:11Rasmus Dahlin Goal (15) , assists: noneBUF 3 – 1 LA · BUF 85% → 98% +13BUF 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P317:35Zach Benson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (15), Beck Malenstyn (6)BUF 4 – 1 LA · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 54%
- ML BUF -130 / LA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 56.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- LA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −5 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +44 Elo | BUF 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.7% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 5th of 3221–14 | Road vs home | 10–2330th of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 5th of 321557 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–28 | 26–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 8–32 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–36 | 32–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–1 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.