Boston Bruins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals2
- Viktor ArvidssonAssists3
- Pavel ZachaPoints3
Blue Jackets- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- Mason MarchmentPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Viktor Arvidsson Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Charlie Coyle Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Fraser Minten Goal Snap Shot2–1
- P319:49Pavel Zacha Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (26)3–3
- P38:43Pavel Zacha Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (46), Viktor Arvidsson (25)2–3
- P36:29Charlie McAvoy Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (31), Viktor Arvidsson (24)1–3
- P119:32Charlie Coyle Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (36), Mason Marchment (20)0–3
- P17:45Mason Marchment Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (21), Kirill Marchenko (35)0–2
- P16:17Boone Jenner Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:17Boone Jenner Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (21)BOS 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 59% → 73% +14CBJ 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P17:45Mason Marchment Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (21), Kirill Marchenko (35)BOS 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 73% → 84% +11CBJ 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P119:32Charlie Coyle Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (36), Mason Marchment (20)BOS 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 86% → 94% +8CBJ 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P38:43Pavel Zacha Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (46), Viktor Arvidsson (25)BOS 2 – 3 CBJ · BOS 4% → 17% +14BOS 4% → 17%+14 pts
- P319:49Pavel Zacha Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (26)BOS 3 – 3 CBJ · BOS <1% → 49% +49BOS <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 59%
- ML BOS +136 / CBJ -162
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- CBJ: Elo 57.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -146
- BOS +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.5 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CBJ and BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +14 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +54 Elo | CBJ 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 25th of 3214–20 | Road vs home | 20–1611th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 13th of 321508 | Elo rating | 151810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–26 | 40–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 36–12 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 40–33 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–3 CBJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.