Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Damon SeversonGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists1
- Damon SeversonPoints1
Canadiens- Zack BolducGoals1
- Zack BolducAssists1
- Zack BolducPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:36Zachary Bolduc Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (11), Mike Matheson (28)1–2
- P112:17Damon Severson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (23), Isac Lundeström (7)1–1
- P19:54Jayden Struble Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (17), Lane Hutson (59)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:54Jayden Struble Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (17), Lane Hutson (59)CBJ 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 50% → 66% +15MTL 50% → 66%+15 pts
- P112:17Damon Severson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (23), Isac Lundeström (7)CBJ 1 – 1 MTL · CBJ 34% → 50% +16CBJ 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P34:36Zachary Bolduc Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (11), Mike Matheson (28)CBJ 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 50% → 77% +26MTL 50% → 77%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 50%
- ML CBJ -108 / MTL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MTL: Elo 52.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- MTL -102
- CBJ +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +2 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +17 Elo | MTL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 14th of 3218–18 | Road vs home | 21–158th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 32 |
| 8th of 321524 | Elo rating | 151810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–32 | 39–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 9–27 |
| Underdog | 29–13 | 30–4 |
| Overs–unders | 35–36 | 43–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–5 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.