Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Jake Evans Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (15)2–5
- P313:53Ivan Demidov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P29:19Juraj Slafkovský Goal (28) Deflected, assists: Cole Caufield (32), Noah Dobson (34)2–3
- P25:49Cole Caufield Goal (44) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (62), Juraj Slafkovský (35)2–2
- P112:11Oliver Kapanen Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jayden Struble (10), Ivan Demidov (39)2–1
- P17:09Jordan Staal Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P12:36Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (36), Seth Jarvis (31)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:36Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (36), Seth Jarvis (31)CAR 1 – 0 MTL · CAR 53% → 67% +14CAR 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P17:09Jordan Staal Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 0 MTL · CAR 68% → 80% +12CAR 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P112:11Oliver Kapanen Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jayden Struble (10), Ivan Demidov (39)CAR 2 – 1 MTL · MTL 19% → 32% +13MTL 19% → 32%+13 pts
- P25:49Cole Caufield Goal (44) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (62), Juraj Slafkovský (35)CAR 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 29% → 48% +18MTL 29% → 48%+18 pts
- P29:19Juraj Slafkovský Goal (28) Deflected, assists: Cole Caufield (32), Noah Dobson (34)CAR 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 48% → 67% +20MTL 48% → 67%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 53%
- ML CAR -125 / MTL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 51.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -114
- MTL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +1 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +11 Elo | CAR 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.1% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%26th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 6th of 3220–14 | Road vs home | 20–1510th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321568 | Elo rating | 151312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–44 | 38–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 9–27 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 29–4 |
| Overs–unders | 38–32 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–3 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.