San Jose Sharks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Igor ChernyshovGoals2
- Will SmithAssists2
- Igor ChernyshovPoints2
Blue Jackets- Denton MateychukGoals1
- Ivan ProvorovAssists1
- Cole SillingerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:35Igor Chernyshov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Will Smith (28), Macklin Celebrini (62)3–2
- P30:57Macklin Celebrini Goal (36) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (27), Alexander Wennberg (32)2–2
- P212:09Cole Sillinger Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (20)1–2
- P117:17Igor Chernyshov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Will Smith (27)1–1
- P10:31Denton Mateychuk Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:31Denton Mateychuk Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (33)SJ 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 62% → 75% +13CBJ 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P117:17Igor Chernyshov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Will Smith (27)SJ 1 – 1 CBJ · SJ 24% → 40% +15SJ 24% → 40%+15 pts
- P212:09Cole Sillinger Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (20)SJ 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 58% → 77% +19CBJ 58% → 77%+19 pts
- P30:57Macklin Celebrini Goal (36) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (27), Alexander Wennberg (32)SJ 2 – 2 CBJ · SJ 21% → 43% +23SJ 21% → 43%+23 pts
- P318:35Igor Chernyshov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Will Smith (28), Macklin Celebrini (62)SJ 3 – 2 CBJ · SJ 48% → >99% +51SJ 48% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 62%
- ML SJ +154 / CBJ -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- CBJ: Elo 65.9%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -165
- SJ +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −15 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +115 Elo | CBJ 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 64.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%14th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3215–21 | Road vs home | 20–1511th of 32 |
| 5th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 30th of 321424 | Elo rating | 15229th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–27 | 40–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 41–22 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36 | 35–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 2–3 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.