San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists1
- Alexander WennbergPoints1
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Dylan HollowayAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:57Dylan Holloway Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Philip Broberg (22)1–2
- P35:04Alexander Wennberg Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (31), Kiefer Sherwood (9)1–1
- P217:19Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (18), Jimmy Snuggerud (22)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:19Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (18), Jimmy Snuggerud (22)SJ 0 – 1 STL · STL 53% → 75% +22STL 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P35:04Alexander Wennberg Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (31), Kiefer Sherwood (9)SJ 1 – 1 STL · SJ 22% → 48% +26SJ 22% → 48%+26 pts
- OT4:57Dylan Holloway Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Philip Broberg (22)SJ 1 – 2 STL · STL 50% → 100% +50STL 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML SJ +110 / STL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.6 pts
- STL: Elo 66.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- SJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −20 | +10 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +122 Elo | STL 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 47.5%26th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3215–20 | Road vs home | 16–1925th of 32 |
| 4th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321426 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–27 | 39–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 4–20 |
| Underdog | 40–22 | 35–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35 | 32–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 4–3 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.