Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:19Jordan Kyrou Goal (17) Backhand, assists: none0–3
- P314:52Otto Stenberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dalibor Dvorsky (7), Jonatan Berggren (12)0–2
- P22:39Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Mailloux (6), Philip Broberg (21)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:39Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Mailloux (6), Philip Broberg (21)WSH 0 – 1 STL · STL 49% → 67% +18STL 49% → 67%+18 pts
- P314:52Otto Stenberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dalibor Dvorsky (7), Jonatan Berggren (12)WSH 0 – 2 STL · STL 89% → >99% +10STL 89% → >99%+10 pts
- P319:19Jordan Kyrou Goal (17) Backhand, assists: noneWSH 0 – 3 STL · STL >99% → 100% +0STL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML WSH -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 49.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +8 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +6 Elo | STL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.631st of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 47.4%26th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3213–20 | Road vs home | 15–1927th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321510 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–34 | 38–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 3–20 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 35–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–41 | 32–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.