St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Logan MaillouxAssists2
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints2
Canucks- Filip HronekGoals1
- Elias PetterssonAssists1
- Filip HronekPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:12Jordan Kyrou Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (26), Logan Mailloux (5)3–1
- P38:32Filip Hronek Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (26), Marco Rossi (19)2–1
- P211:36Pavel Buchnevich Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (20), Logan Mailloux (4)2–0
- P210:17Pius Suter Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Robert Thomas (30), Dylan Holloway (17)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:17Pius Suter Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Robert Thomas (30), Dylan Holloway (17)STL 1 – 0 VAN · STL 55% → 74% +19STL 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P211:36Pavel Buchnevich Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (20), Logan Mailloux (4)STL 2 – 0 VAN · STL 74% → 88% +14STL 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P38:32Filip Hronek Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (26), Marco Rossi (19)STL 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 4% → 18% +14VAN 4% → 18%+14 pts
- P319:12Jordan Kyrou Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (26), Logan Mailloux (5)STL 3 – 1 VAN · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML STL -148 / VAN +124
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- STL: Elo 53.9%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -134
- VAN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −7 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +27 Elo | STL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 46.9%27th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 30th of 3212–22 | Road vs home | 8–2732nd of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 25th of 321475 | Elo rating | 141432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–31 | 33–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 35–11 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 32–36 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–3 VAN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.