San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Will SmithGoals2
- Vincent DesharnaisAssists1
- Will SmithPoints2
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists3
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
Scoring summary
- P31:40Will Smith Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Igor Chernyshov (9), Vincent Desharnais (5)3–6
- P217:26Will Smith Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P212:38Steven Stamkos Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (32), Jonathan Marchessault (17)1–6
- P116:36Brady Skjei Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (42)1–5
- P112:26Luke Evangelista Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (41), Brady Skjei (21)1–4
- P111:40Roman Josi Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (31)1–3
- P17:49Matthew Wood Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (16)1–2
- P16:25Adam Gaudette Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (7), Mario Ferraro (14)1–1
- P12:34Filip Forsberg Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Fedor Svechkov (11), Jonathan Marchessault (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:34Filip Forsberg Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Fedor Svechkov (11), Jonathan Marchessault (15)SJ 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 56% → 70% +14NSH 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P16:25Adam Gaudette Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (7), Mario Ferraro (14)SJ 1 – 1 NSH · SJ 30% → 44% +14SJ 30% → 44%+14 pts
- P17:49Matthew Wood Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (16)SJ 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 56% → 71% +15NSH 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P111:40Roman Josi Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (31)SJ 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 71% → 83% +12NSH 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P112:26Luke Evangelista Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (41), Brady Skjei (21)SJ 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 83% → 91% +8NSH 83% → 91%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 56%
- ML SJ +120 / NSH -142
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- NSH: Elo 61.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -129
- SJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.1 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +79 Elo | NSH 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3215–19 | Road vs home | 18–1616th of 32 |
| 4th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 30th of 321429 | Elo rating | 147525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–26 | 38–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 40–21 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders | 33–35 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–6 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.