Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints2
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists3
- Matthew TkachukPoints4
Scoring summary
- P34:29Michael Amadio Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (18), Lassi Thomson (1)3–6
- P215:14Jordan Spence Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (44), Michael Amadio (19)2–6
- P212:41Matthew Tkachuk Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (31), Carter Verhaeghe (30)1–6
- P21:40Drake Batherson Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–5
- P114:36Carter Verhaeghe Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (30), Matthew Tkachuk (18)0–5
- P114:02A.J. Greer Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (18), Donovan Sebrango (4)0–4
- P19:09Carter Verhaeghe Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (17), Seth Jones (23)0–3
- P11:06Mackie Samoskevich Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (22), Matthew Tkachuk (16)0–2
- P10:08Noah Gregor Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (21), Tomas Nosek (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:08Noah Gregor Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (21), Tomas Nosek (2)OTT 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 38% → 53% +14FLA 38% → 53%+14 pts
- P11:06Mackie Samoskevich Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (22), Matthew Tkachuk (16)OTT 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 53% → 67% +14FLA 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P19:09Carter Verhaeghe Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (17), Seth Jones (23)OTT 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 70% → 82% +12FLA 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P114:02A.J. Greer Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (18), Donovan Sebrango (4)OTT 0 – 4 FLA · FLA 84% → 92% +8FLA 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P114:36Carter Verhaeghe Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (30), Matthew Tkachuk (18)OTT 0 – 5 FLA · FLA 92% → 97% +4FLA 92% → 97%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 62%
- ML OTT -180 / FLA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 50.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- OTT -161
- FLA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.1 – 2.4 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −12 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +3 Elo | OTT 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.4% | Shot share | 51.3%9th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 88.6%27th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 12th of 3220–18 | Road vs home | 19–1714th of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15042nd of 32 |
| 8th of 321528 | Elo rating | 150614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–40 | 24–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–34 | 9–40 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 39–34 | 41–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–7 FLA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.