Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Dylan CozensGoals1
- Nick CousinsAssists1
- Dylan CozensPoints1
Lightning- Emil LillebergGoals1
- Emil LillebergAssists2
- Emil LillebergPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:48Jake Guentzel Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (19), Emil Lilleberg (6)2–4
- P38:51Emil Lilleberg Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (38), Gage Goncalves (18)2–3
- P25:14Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (18), Zemgus Girgensons (8)2–2
- P23:37Brandon Hagel Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (21), Emil Lilleberg (5)2–1
- P14:25Jordan Spence Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (13), Artem Zub (22)2–0
- P10:18Dylan Cozens Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (15), Brady Tkachuk (31)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:18Dylan Cozens Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (15), Brady Tkachuk (31)OTT 1 – 0 TB · OTT 45% → 59% +14OTT 45% → 59%+14 pts
- P14:25Jordan Spence Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (13), Artem Zub (22)OTT 2 – 0 TB · OTT 60% → 74% +14OTT 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P23:37Brandon Hagel Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (21), Emil Lilleberg (5)OTT 2 – 1 TB · TB 20% → 36% +16TB 20% → 36%+16 pts
- P25:14Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (18), Zemgus Girgensons (8)OTT 2 – 2 TB · TB 35% → 54% +19TB 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P38:51Emil Lilleberg Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (38), Gage Goncalves (18)OTT 2 – 3 TB · TB 52% → 82% +29TB 52% → 82%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML OTT +114 / TB -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- TB: Elo 62.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- OTT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.1 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +85 Elo | TB 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.4% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220–17 | Road vs home | 20–137th of 32 |
| 24th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 6th of 321531 | Elo rating | 15732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–39 | 35–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–34 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 15–5 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 39–33 | 39–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 6–3 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.