Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals2
- Kaapo KakkoAssists1
- Brandon MontourPoints2
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Charle-Edouard D'AstousAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:47Brandon Montour Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (15), Berkly Catton (9)4–3
- P210:18Corey Perry Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (43), Nikita Kucherov (81)3–3
- P25:56Jake Guentzel Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (45), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (20)3–2
- P23:35Bobby McMann Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (20), Adam Larsson (16)3–1
- P118:12Kaapo Kakko Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (28), Bobby McMann (16)2–1
- P117:01Anthony Cirelli Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (37), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (19)1–1
- P115:18Brandon Montour Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (17), Oscar Fisker Molgaard (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:12Kaapo Kakko Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (28), Bobby McMann (16)SEA 2 – 1 TB · SEA 32% → 49% +17SEA 32% → 49%+17 pts
- P23:35Bobby McMann Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (20), Adam Larsson (16)SEA 3 – 1 TB · SEA 51% → 69% +18SEA 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P25:56Jake Guentzel Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (45), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (20)SEA 3 – 2 TB · TB 29% → 48% +18TB 29% → 48%+18 pts
- P210:18Corey Perry Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (43), Nikita Kucherov (81)SEA 3 – 3 TB · TB 45% → 65% +20TB 45% → 65%+20 pts
- OT2:47Brandon Montour Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (15), Berkly Catton (9)SEA 4 – 3 TB · SEA 46% → 96% +51SEA 46% → 96%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 71%
- ML SEA +235 / TB -290
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- TB: Elo 71.2%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -249
- SEA +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +6 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +157 Elo | TB 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 69.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3214–20 | Road vs home | 20–126th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 27th of 321467 | Elo rating | 15772nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–27 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 24–35 |
| Underdog | 38–21 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 30–40 | 38–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–4 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.