Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Bruins- Viktor ArvidssonGoals3
- David PastrnakAssists3
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:47Viktor Arvidsson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (47)3–6
- P319:02Wyatt Johnston Goal (41) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (49), Miro Heiskanen (52)3–5
- P316:23Viktor Arvidsson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P35:51Henri Jokiharju Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (30), Morgan Geekie (29)2–4
- P30:13Elias Lindholm Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (66), Jonathan Aspirot (10)2–3
- P216:53Matt Duchene Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (48)2–2
- P24:49Jamie Benn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (39), Mikko Rantanen (51)1–2
- P118:51Viktor Arvidsson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (65), Pavel Zacha (32)0–2
- P19:58Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (12), David Pastrnak (64)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:58Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (12), David Pastrnak (64)DAL 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 46% → 62% +16BOS 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P24:49Jamie Benn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (39), Mikko Rantanen (51)DAL 1 – 2 BOS · DAL 19% → 35% +15DAL 19% → 35%+15 pts
- P216:53Matt Duchene Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (48)DAL 2 – 2 BOS · DAL 30% → 53% +23DAL 30% → 53%+23 pts
- P30:13Elias Lindholm Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (66), Jonathan Aspirot (10)DAL 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 48% → 72% +24BOS 48% → 72%+24 pts
- P35:51Henri Jokiharju Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (30), Morgan Geekie (29)DAL 2 – 4 BOS · BOS 76% → 93% +17BOS 76% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML DAL -130 / BOS +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 52.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −10 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +20 Elo | DAL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 47.8%26th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 5th of 3222–16 | Road vs home | 27–111st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 4th of 321556 | Elo rating | 151113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–44 | 48–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 16–42 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 14–2 | 37–12 |
| Overs–unders | 36–38 | 41–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.