Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Arttu HyryGoals1
- Arttu HyryPoints1
Flyers- Trevor ZegrasGoals1
- Cam YorkAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:27Trevor Zegras Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (22), Samuel Ersson (1)1–2
- P217:53Arttu Hyry Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P29:48Travis Konecny Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (24), Rasmus Ristolainen (9)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:48Travis Konecny Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (24), Rasmus Ristolainen (9)DAL 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 42% → 62% +20PHI 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P217:53Arttu Hyry Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneDAL 1 – 1 PHI · DAL 33% → 57% +23DAL 33% → 57%+23 pts
- OT3:27Trevor Zegras Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (22), Samuel Ersson (1)DAL 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 48% → 99% +50PHI 48% → 99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 61%
- ML DAL -175 / PHI +145
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 57.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -156
- PHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.1 – 2.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PHI and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −12 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +54 Elo | DAL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–15 | Road vs home | 16–2026th of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 32 |
| 4th of 321558 | Elo rating | 148224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–43 | 47–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 16–41 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 14–2 | 37–14 |
| Overs–unders | 36–37 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–1 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.