Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals3
- Jamie DrysdaleAssists2
- Owen TippettPoints4
Red Wings- Mason AppletonGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Patrick KanePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:56Sean Couturier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (21)5–3
- P316:14Lucas Raymond Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (44), Patrick Kane (33)4–3
- P315:10Alex DeBrincat Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (32), Moritz Seider (43)4–2
- P313:43Mason Appleton Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (23)4–1
- P37:19Owen Tippett Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (22), Travis Konecny (37)4–0
- P216:08Noah Cates Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (23), Travis Konecny (36)3–0
- P212:22Owen Tippett Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (9), Jamie Drysdale (21)2–0
- P14:07Owen Tippett Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (36)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:07Owen Tippett Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (36)PHI 1 – 0 DET · PHI 46% → 61% +15PHI 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P212:22Owen Tippett Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (9), Jamie Drysdale (21)PHI 2 – 0 DET · PHI 68% → 84% +16PHI 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P216:08Noah Cates Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (23), Travis Konecny (36)PHI 3 – 0 DET · PHI 86% → 95% +9PHI 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P316:14Lucas Raymond Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (44), Patrick Kane (33)PHI 4 – 3 DET · DET <1% → 8% +7DET <1% → 8%+7 pts
- P317:56Sean Couturier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (21)PHI 5 – 3 DET · PHI 97% → >99% +3PHI 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML PHI +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- DET: Elo 53.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.6 – 2.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +4 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +27 Elo | DET 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 7th of 3219–16 | Road vs home | 20–1611th of 32 |
| 7th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 32 |
| 25th of 321478 | Elo rating | 150515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–25 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 8–24 |
| Underdog | 36–14 | 29–11 |
| Overs–unders | 36–35 | 34–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–3 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.