Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Tanner PearsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:17Patrick Kane Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (41)5–2
- P316:25Rasmus Dahlin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (7), Bowen Byram (27)4–2
- P315:46Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (31), Alex DeBrincat (40)4–1
- P25:35Tage Thompson Goal (37) Slap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (25), Conor Timmins (7)3–1
- P116:06Marco Kasper Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (15), James van Riemsdyk (14)3–0
- P19:11Lucas Raymond Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (42)2–0
- P14:02Alex DeBrincat Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (41), Dylan Larkin (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:02Alex DeBrincat Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (41), Dylan Larkin (28)DET 1 – 0 BUF · DET 44% → 59% +15DET 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P19:11Lucas Raymond Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (42)DET 2 – 0 BUF · DET 60% → 74% +14DET 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P116:06Marco Kasper Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (15), James van Riemsdyk (14)DET 3 – 0 BUF · DET 76% → 87% +11DET 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P25:35Tage Thompson Goal (37) Slap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (25), Conor Timmins (7)DET 3 – 1 BUF · BUF 9% → 20% +11BUF 9% → 20%+11 pts
- P315:46Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (31), Alex DeBrincat (40)DET 4 – 1 BUF · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 56%
- ML DET +120 / BUF -142
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 62.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -129
- DET +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +4 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +91 Elo | BUF 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 13th of 3218–17 | Road vs home | 22–135th of 32 |
| 4th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Elo rating | 15554th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–35 | 43–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–24 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 28–11 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38 | 35–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–4 BUF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.