Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints1
Penguins- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Egor ChinakhovAssists1
- Egor ChinakhovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:09Noel Acciari Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (25), Elmer Soderblom (4)1–5
- P212:23Justin Brazeau Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Connor Clifton (4)1–4
- P23:17Dylan Larkin Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (34)1–3
- P118:02Egor Chinakhov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (28)0–3
- P18:34Anthony Mantha Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (38), Connor Dewar (15)0–2
- P14:10Rickard Rakell Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (39), Egor Chinakhov (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:10Rickard Rakell Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (39), Egor Chinakhov (16)DET 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 50% → 65% +15PIT 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P18:34Anthony Mantha Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (38), Connor Dewar (15)DET 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 66% → 79% +13PIT 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P118:02Egor Chinakhov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (28)DET 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 81% → 91% +10PIT 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P23:17Dylan Larkin Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (34)DET 1 – 3 PIT · DET 8% → 17% +9DET 8% → 17%+9 pts
- P212:23Justin Brazeau Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Connor Clifton (4)DET 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 86% → 95% +9PIT 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML DET -108 / PIT -112
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.7%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -102
- DET +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +5 Elo | PIT 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 51.5%7th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 11th of 3219–17 | Road vs home | 16–2028th of 32 |
| 4th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Elo rating | 150515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–36 | 43–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 29–11 | 33–11 |
| Overs–unders | 35–38 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–5 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.