Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Anthony ManthaGoals2
- Justin BrazeauAssists3
- Anthony ManthaPoints3
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Calum RitchieAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:16Bryan Rust Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (38), Kris Letang (27)8–3
- P37:54Rickard Rakell Goal (19) Deflected, assists: Justin Brazeau (17), Samuel Girard (12)7–3
- P36:06Avery Hayes Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (17), Thomas Novak (23)6–3
- P217:18Anthony Mantha Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Justin Brazeau (16), Kris Letang (26)5–3
- P214:35Anthony Mantha Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Justin Brazeau (15), Parker Wotherspoon (26)4–3
- P213:29Ryan Shea Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (28), Sidney Crosby (37)3–3
- P211:01Rickard Rakell Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Bryan Rust (34), Parker Wotherspoon (25)2–3
- P29:17Brayden Schenn Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (48), Calum Ritchie (15)1–3
- P26:41Elmer Soderblom Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (14), Noel Acciari (11)1–2
- P22:56Mathew Barzal Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (14), Adam Boqvist (4)0–2
- P21:27Anders Lee Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Adam Boqvist (3), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:27Anders Lee Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Adam Boqvist (3), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (17)PIT 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 71% +17NYI 53% → 71%+17 pts
- P211:01Rickard Rakell Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Bryan Rust (34), Parker Wotherspoon (25)PIT 2 – 3 NYI · PIT 13% → 27% +14PIT 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P213:29Ryan Shea Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (28), Sidney Crosby (37)PIT 3 – 3 NYI · PIT 27% → 47% +20PIT 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P214:35Anthony Mantha Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Justin Brazeau (15), Parker Wotherspoon (26)PIT 4 – 3 NYI · PIT 47% → 69% +22PIT 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P217:18Anthony Mantha Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Justin Brazeau (16), Kris Letang (26)PIT 5 – 3 NYI · PIT 70% → 87% +17PIT 70% → 87%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 54%
- ML PIT +110 / NYI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NYI: Elo 56.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +3 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +42 Elo | NYI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%4th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 9th of 3219–16 | Road vs home | 21–148th of 32 |
| 8th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Elo rating | 149818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–31 | 39–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–20 | 5–23 |
| Underdog | 32–11 | 34–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–32 | 35–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–6 NYI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.