Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- A.J. GreerGoals1
- A.J. GreerAssists1
- A.J. GreerPoints2
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals3
- Erik KarlssonAssists3
- Evgeni MalkinPoints4
Scoring summary
- P310:46Mackie Samoskevich Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (13)4–9
- P38:02Noah Gregor Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Sam Bennett (32), Matthew Tkachuk (19)3–9
- P33:30Evgeni Malkin Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–9
- P218:07Ryan Shea Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (15), Anthony Mantha (30)2–8
- P217:48Rickard Rakell Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (39), Erik Karlsson (50)2–7
- P29:53Elmer Soderblom Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Connor Dewar (16)2–6
- P28:27Evgeni Malkin Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Novak (24), Rickard Rakell (24)2–5
- P25:51Evgeni Malkin Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (49), Sidney Crosby (41)2–4
- P21:51Anthony Mantha Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P114:31Seth Jones Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Schwindt (2)2–2
- P17:10A.J. Greer Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Reinhardt (5), Gustav Forsling (24)1–2
- P15:06Erik Karlsson Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (40), Egor Chinakhov (17)0–2
- P10:20Noel Acciari Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Elmer Soderblom (5), Erik Karlsson (48)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:20Noel Acciari Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Elmer Soderblom (5), Erik Karlsson (48)FLA 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 68% → 80% +12PIT 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P17:10A.J. Greer Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Reinhardt (5), Gustav Forsling (24)FLA 1 – 2 PIT · FLA 11% → 20% +9FLA 11% → 20%+9 pts
- P114:31Seth Jones Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Schwindt (2)FLA 2 – 2 PIT · FLA 20% → 34% +14FLA 20% → 34%+14 pts
- P21:51Anthony Mantha Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 65% → 80% +15PIT 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P25:51Evgeni Malkin Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (49), Sidney Crosby (41)FLA 2 – 4 PIT · PIT 80% → 91% +11PIT 80% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 68%
- ML FLA +200 / PIT -245
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.4%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -213
- FLA +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −3 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +17 Elo | PIT 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 51.4%8th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 20th of 3216–20 | Road vs home | 17–2026th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 12th of 321513 | Elo rating | 150715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–49 | 44–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–40 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 34–12 |
| Overs–unders | 42–33 | 43–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 5–2 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.