Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Egor ChinakhovGoals2
- Kris LetangAssists2
- Egor ChinakhovPoints2
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals3
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Anthony CirelliPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:58Egor Chinakhov Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (30), Anthony Mantha (29)3–6
- P315:33Anthony Cirelli Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (20), Nikita Kucherov (83)2–6
- P313:50Nikita Kucherov Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (23), Jake Guentzel (47)2–5
- P219:05Zemgus Girgensons Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Yanni Gourde (19), Ryan McDonagh (11)2–4
- P214:08Brayden Point Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (46), Nikita Kucherov (82)2–3
- P20:11Anthony Cirelli Goal (22) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P116:10Egor Chinakhov Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (35), Samuel Girard (14)2–1
- P17:01Rickard Rakell Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (13), Kris Letang (29)1–1
- P15:06Anthony Cirelli Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:01Rickard Rakell Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (13), Kris Letang (29)PIT 1 – 1 TB · PIT 27% → 41% +14PIT 27% → 41%+14 pts
- P116:10Egor Chinakhov Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (35), Samuel Girard (14)PIT 2 – 1 TB · PIT 42% → 59% +17PIT 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P20:11Anthony Cirelli Goal (22) Backhand, assists: nonePIT 2 – 2 TB · TB 40% → 58% +18TB 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P214:08Brayden Point Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (46), Nikita Kucherov (82)PIT 2 – 3 TB · TB 56% → 76% +20TB 56% → 76%+20 pts
- P219:05Zemgus Girgensons Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Yanni Gourde (19), Ryan McDonagh (11)PIT 2 – 4 TB · TB 78% → 92% +14TB 78% → 92%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML PIT +136 / TB -162
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- TB: Elo 64.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -146
- PIT +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +102 Elo | TB 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.82nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 51.4%9th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.3%8th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 8th of 3220–16 | Road vs home | 22–146th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 15th of 321511 | Elo rating | 15722nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–31 | 36–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–20 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 34–11 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 42–33 | 39–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–5 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.