Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Jake GuentzelAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P36:52Corey Perry Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (45), Emil Lilleberg (7)2–3
- P34:53Filip Forsberg Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Fedor Svechkov (13), Adam Wilsby (12)2–2
- P34:33Brandon Hagel Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (44)1–2
- P213:32Jake Guentzel Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (46), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (22)1–1
- P28:31Joakim Kemell Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Filip Forsberg (33), Justin Barron (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:31Joakim Kemell Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Filip Forsberg (33), Justin Barron (8)NSH 1 – 0 TB · NSH 41% → 61% +20NSH 41% → 61%+20 pts
- P213:32Jake Guentzel Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (46), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (22)NSH 1 – 1 TB · TB 37% → 58% +22TB 37% → 58%+22 pts
- P34:33Brandon Hagel Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (44)NSH 1 – 2 TB · TB 56% → 81% +25TB 56% → 81%+25 pts
- P34:53Filip Forsberg Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Fedor Svechkov (13), Adam Wilsby (12)NSH 2 – 2 TB · NSH 19% → 44% +25NSH 19% → 44%+25 pts
- P36:52Corey Perry Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (45), Emil Lilleberg (7)NSH 2 – 3 TB · TB 56% → 82% +26TB 56% → 82%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML NSH +154 / TB -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- TB: Elo 65.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -165
- NSH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | TB and NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −33 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.81 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +108 Elo | TB 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 67.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 25th of 3214–20 | Road vs home | 21–136th of 32 |
| 14th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 27th of 321470 | Elo rating | 15762nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–34 | 36–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 25–36 |
| Underdog | 32–19 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 34–39 | 39–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–4 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.