Montreal Canadiens at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Alex NewhookPoints2
Predators- Zachary L'HeureuxGoals1
- Matthew WoodAssists1
- Zachary L'HeureuxPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:26Zachary L'Heureux Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Ufko (4), Matthew Wood (11)4–1
- P216:23Alex Newhook Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (40), Oliver Kapanen (15)4–0
- P214:45Cole Caufield Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (64)3–0
- P23:12Oliver Kapanen Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (11), Lane Hutson (60)2–0
- P111:34Ivan Demidov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (63)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:34Ivan Demidov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (63)MTL 1 – 0 NSH · MTL 51% → 67% +16MTL 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P23:12Oliver Kapanen Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (11), Lane Hutson (60)MTL 2 – 0 NSH · MTL 69% → 83% +14MTL 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P214:45Cole Caufield Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (64)MTL 3 – 0 NSH · MTL 87% → 96% +8MTL 87% → 96%+8 pts
- P216:23Alex Newhook Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (40), Oliver Kapanen (15)MTL 4 – 0 NSH · MTL 96% → >99% +3MTL 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P316:26Zachary L'Heureux Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Ufko (4), Matthew Wood (11)MTL 4 – 1 NSH · NSH <1% → <1% +0NSH <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 51%
- ML MTL -115 / NSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MTL: Elo 51.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -104
- NSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.3 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +13 Elo | MTL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%18th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 10th of 3218–16 | Road vs home | 19–1714th of 32 |
| 6th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 9th of 321520 | Elo rating | 147426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–32 | 39–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–28 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 30–4 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders | 43–28 | 34–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–1 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.