New Jersey Devils at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Jesper BrattPoints3
Predators- Reid SchaeferGoals1
- Nicolas HagueAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:27Timo Meier Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (22), Jonas Siegenthaler (11)4–2
- P314:07Nico Hischier Goal (26) Deflected, assists: Jack Hughes (39), Jesper Bratt (41)3–2
- P213:00Steven Stamkos Goal (36) Backhand, assists: Luke Evangelista (40)2–2
- P211:09Reid Schaefer Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (12), Nicolas Hague (12)2–1
- P29:13Nico Hischier Goal (25) Deflected, assists: Jesper Bratt (40), Simon Nemec (15)2–0
- P118:02Jesper Bratt Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (38), Jonas Siegenthaler (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:02Jesper Bratt Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (38), Jonas Siegenthaler (10)NJ 1 – 0 NSH · NJ 50% → 67% +17NJ 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P29:13Nico Hischier Goal (25) Deflected, assists: Jesper Bratt (40), Simon Nemec (15)NJ 2 – 0 NSH · NJ 69% → 84% +15NJ 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P211:09Reid Schaefer Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (12), Nicolas Hague (12)NJ 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 15% → 30% +15NSH 15% → 30%+15 pts
- P213:00Steven Stamkos Goal (36) Backhand, assists: Luke Evangelista (40)NJ 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 30% → 50% +21NSH 30% → 50%+21 pts
- P314:07Nico Hischier Goal (26) Deflected, assists: Jack Hughes (39), Jesper Bratt (41)NJ 3 – 2 NSH · NJ 50% → 88% +38NJ 50% → 88%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 50%
- ML NJ -108 / NSH -112
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- NSH: Elo 54.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NSH -102
- NJ +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.2 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +31 Elo | NSH 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 48.7%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 12th of 3218–17 | Road vs home | 19–1614th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321485 | Elo rating | 147824th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–44 | 39–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–34 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders | 31–39 | 34–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–1 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.