Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Mike MathesonGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists1
- Mike MathesonPoints2
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Jake GuentzelPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:54Nick Suzuki Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P317:54Mike Matheson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P212:49Cole Caufield Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (37), Mike Matheson (29)2–1
- P113:41Jake Guentzel Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (9), Ryan McDonagh (10)1–1
- P112:25Juraj Slafkovský Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (42), Cole Caufield (34)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:25Juraj Slafkovský Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (42), Cole Caufield (34)MTL 1 – 0 TB · MTL 41% → 57% +16MTL 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P113:41Jake Guentzel Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (9), Ryan McDonagh (10)MTL 1 – 1 TB · TB 43% → 59% +16TB 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P212:49Cole Caufield Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (37), Mike Matheson (29)MTL 2 – 1 TB · MTL 43% → 64% +21MTL 43% → 64%+21 pts
- P317:54Mike Matheson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: noneMTL 3 – 1 TB · MTL 97% → >99% +3MTL 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P318:54Nick Suzuki Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 4 – 1 TB · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML MTL +142 / TB -170
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- TB: Elo 62.1%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -152
- MTL +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +7 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +86 Elo | TB 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.9% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.3%8th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3220–16 | Road vs home | 22–135th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 6th of 321529 | Elo rating | 15782nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–32 | 36–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–28 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 31–4 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 43–30 | 39–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–7 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.