Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists1
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P219:53Nick Suzuki Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (36), Ivan Demidov (41)3–1
- P217:32Cole Caufield Goal (46) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (65), Lane Hutson (62)2–1
- P26:18Nick Suzuki Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (33), Lane Hutson (61)1–1
- P18:37Andrei Svechnikov Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (32), Sebastian Aho (49)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:37Andrei Svechnikov Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (32), Sebastian Aho (49)MTL 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 60% → 74% +14CAR 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P26:18Nick Suzuki Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (33), Lane Hutson (61)MTL 1 – 1 CAR · MTL 24% → 42% +17MTL 24% → 42%+17 pts
- P217:32Cole Caufield Goal (46) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (65), Lane Hutson (62)MTL 2 – 1 CAR · MTL 43% → 67% +23MTL 43% → 67%+23 pts
- P219:53Nick Suzuki Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (36), Ivan Demidov (41)MTL 3 – 1 CAR · MTL 68% → 86% +18MTL 68% → 86%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML MTL +145 / CAR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -156
- MTL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CAR and MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −9 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +63 Elo | CAR 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 57.4%1st of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 8th of 3219–16 | Road vs home | 26–112nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150021st of 32 |
| 9th of 321524 | Elo rating | 15663rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–32 | 27–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–28 | 24–43 |
| Underdog | 30–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 43–29 | 40–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–4 CAR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.