New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Evgenii DadonovGoals1
- Brenden DillonAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints1
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Taylor HallAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:36Evgenii Dadonov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (5), Brenden Dillon (12)2–5
- P317:40Seth Jarvis Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (17), Sebastian Aho (48)1–5
- P315:25Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none1–4
- P215:13Jordan Staal Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (38), Jordan Martinook (14)1–3
- P213:48Jackson Blake Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (25), Shayne Gostisbehere (33)1–2
- P210:10Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (19), Taylor Hall (24)1–1
- P117:06Timo Meier Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (20), Nico Hischier (30)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:06Timo Meier Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (20), Nico Hischier (30)NJ 1 – 0 CAR · NJ 38% → 55% +17NJ 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P210:10Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (19), Taylor Hall (24)NJ 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 40% → 60% +20CAR 40% → 60%+20 pts
- P213:48Jackson Blake Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (25), Shayne Gostisbehere (33)NJ 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 60% → 79% +19CAR 60% → 79%+19 pts
- P215:13Jordan Staal Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (38), Jordan Martinook (14)NJ 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 79% → 92% +13CAR 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P315:25Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML NJ +170 / CAR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 65.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CAR -181
- NJ +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +111 Elo | CAR 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 11th of 3219–17 | Road vs home | 25–112nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 20th of 321490 | Elo rating | 15633rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–44 | 26–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–34 | 23–43 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 31–40 | 39–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–12 CAR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 15.
- Jan 17CAR 4 @ NJ 1Picked CAR 51%Hit
- Jan 4CAR 3 @ NJ 1Picked CAR 53%Hit
- Oct 9NJ 3 @ CAR 6Picked CAR 61%Hit
- Apr 29NJ 4 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 71%Hit
- Apr 27CAR 5 @ NJ 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 63%Hit
- Apr 25CAR 2 @ NJ 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 60%Miss
- Apr 22NJ 1 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 71%Hit
- Apr 20NJ 1 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 67%Hit