Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Rasmus DahlinPoints2
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists2
- Jakob ChychrunPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:55Tom Wilson Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (30)2–6
- P36:26Ryan Leonard Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (5), Justin Sourdif (18)2–5
- P26:06Aliaksei Protas Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P112:15Beck Malenstyn Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (5), Rasmus Dahlin (51)2–3
- P16:30Rasmus Dahlin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (18), Alex Tuch (32)1–3
- P15:52Connor McMichael Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (34), Pierre-Luc Dubois (12)0–3
- P13:35Dylan Strome Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Aliaksei Protas (25), Alex Ovechkin (30)0–2
- P13:15Jakob Chychrun Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (29), Pierre-Luc Dubois (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:15Jakob Chychrun Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (29), Pierre-Luc Dubois (11)BUF 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 49% → 64% +15WSH 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P13:35Dylan Strome Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Aliaksei Protas (25), Alex Ovechkin (30)BUF 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 64% → 77% +13WSH 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P16:30Rasmus Dahlin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (18), Alex Tuch (32)BUF 1 – 3 WSH · BUF 13% → 23% +10BUF 13% → 23%+10 pts
- P112:15Beck Malenstyn Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (5), Rasmus Dahlin (51)BUF 2 – 3 WSH · BUF 21% → 35% +14BUF 21% → 35%+14 pts
- P26:06Aliaksei Protas Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 68% → 83% +15WSH 68% → 83%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 51%
- ML BUF -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +5 Elo | BUF 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 5th of 3222–16 | Road vs home | 23–169th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 5th of 321547 | Elo rating | 151112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–33 | 40–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–22 | 21–27 |
| Underdog | 27–11 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 37–39 | 34–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 5–3 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.