Washington Capitals at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals3
- Jakob ChychrunAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints3
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Clayton KellerAssists3
- Clayton KellerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:54Alex Ovechkin Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (37)7–4
- P39:54Ivan Miroshnichenko Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jakob Chychrun (30)6–4
- P38:06MacKenzie Weegar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (49), Alexander Kerfoot (5)5–4
- P36:02Rasmus Sandin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (12)5–3
- P32:43Anthony Beauvillier Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Cole Hutson (2), Connor McMichael (26)4–3
- P211:28Alex Ovechkin Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (36), Trevor van Riemsdyk (10)3–3
- P25:01Alex Ovechkin Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (22), Martin Fehervary (18)2–3
- P119:53Logan Cooley Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (38), Mikhail Sergachev (39)1–3
- P116:59Dylan Guenther Goal (36) Backhand, assists: Clayton Keller (48), Mikhail Sergachev (38)1–2
- P113:04Dylan Guenther Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (47), Mikhail Sergachev (37)1–1
- P12:07Ivan Miroshnichenko Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (11), Jakob Chychrun (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:04Dylan Guenther Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (47), Mikhail Sergachev (37)WSH 1 – 1 UTA · UTA 38% → 55% +16UTA 38% → 55%+16 pts
- P211:28Alex Ovechkin Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (36), Trevor van Riemsdyk (10)WSH 3 – 3 UTA · WSH 27% → 46% +20WSH 27% → 46%+20 pts
- P32:43Anthony Beauvillier Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Cole Hutson (2), Connor McMichael (26)WSH 4 – 3 UTA · WSH 47% → 73% +26WSH 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P36:02Rasmus Sandin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (12)WSH 5 – 3 UTA · WSH 76% → 93% +17WSH 76% → 93%+17 pts
- P38:06MacKenzie Weegar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (49), Alexander Kerfoot (5)WSH 5 – 4 UTA · UTA 6% → 22% +17UTA 6% → 22%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 55%
- ML WSH +114 / UTA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- UTA: Elo 53.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.6 – 2.9 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −13 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +23 Elo | UTA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%18th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 28th of 3213–21 | Road vs home | 19–1614th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149923rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321506 | Elo rating | 151212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–35 | 32–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 30–42 | 36–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.
