Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists3
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Mammoth- Lawson CrouseGoals1
- Ian ColeAssists1
- Alexander KerfootPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:52Connor McDavid Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P215:04Jack Roslovic Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (18), Evan Bouchard (63)4–2
- P212:07Connor McDavid Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (32), Evan Bouchard (62)3–2
- P211:59Lawson Crouse Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (13), MacKenzie Weegar (20)2–2
- P211:24Matt Savoie Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (61), Adam Henrique (11)2–1
- P114:27Jack Roslovic Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Walman (11), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (34)1–1
- P111:12Alexander Kerfoot Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (19), Ian Cole (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:27Jack Roslovic Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Walman (11), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (34)EDM 1 – 1 UTA · EDM 30% → 46% +16EDM 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P211:24Matt Savoie Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (61), Adam Henrique (11)EDM 2 – 1 UTA · EDM 46% → 67% +21EDM 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P211:59Lawson Crouse Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (13), MacKenzie Weegar (20)EDM 2 – 2 UTA · UTA 33% → 54% +21UTA 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P212:07Connor McDavid Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (32), Evan Bouchard (62)EDM 3 – 2 UTA · EDM 46% → 67% +21EDM 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P215:04Jack Roslovic Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (18), Evan Bouchard (63)EDM 4 – 2 UTA · EDM 69% → 85% +17EDM 69% → 85%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 55%
- ML EDM +114 / UTA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- UTA: Elo 57.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -123
- EDM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.4 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +6 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +52 Elo | UTA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 51.4%9th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 20th of 3216–20 | Road vs home | 19–1512th of 32 |
| 29th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 9th of 321518 | Elo rating | 151711th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–44 | 32–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–38 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 44–27 | 35–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 4–0 UTA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.