Los Angeles Kings at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Quinton ByfieldAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Mammoth- Lawson CrouseGoals2
- Kevin StenlundAssists2
- Lawson CrousePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:46Nick Schmaltz Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (36), Kevin Stenlund (14)3–4
- P316:30Artemi Panarin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (14)3–3
- P216:11Nick Schmaltz Goal (25) Batted, assists: Clayton Keller (46), Lawson Crouse (18)2–3
- P19:47Quinton Byfield Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P19:19Lawson Crouse Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (4), Kevin Stenlund (13)1–2
- P17:40Alex Laferriere Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (23)1–1
- P17:04Lawson Crouse Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: John Marino (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:19Lawson Crouse Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (4), Kevin Stenlund (13)LA 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 60% → 74% +14UTA 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P19:47Quinton Byfield Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 2 – 2 UTA · LA 26% → 40% +14LA 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P216:11Nick Schmaltz Goal (25) Batted, assists: Clayton Keller (46), Lawson Crouse (18)LA 2 – 3 UTA · UTA 57% → 77% +21UTA 57% → 77%+21 pts
- P316:30Artemi Panarin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (14)LA 3 – 3 UTA · LA 6% → 47% +42LA 6% → 47%+42 pts
- OT1:46Nick Schmaltz Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (36), Kevin Stenlund (14)LA 3 – 4 UTA · UTA 53% → 95% +42UTA 53% → 95%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 61%
- ML LA +145 / UTA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- UTA: Elo 64.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- UTA -156
- LA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.4 – 3.1 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +106 Elo | UTA 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.37th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 51.4%9th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 11th of 3218–17 | Road vs home | 18–1513th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321480 | Elo rating | 151510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–43 | 32–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–32 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 32–37 | 34–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–0 UTA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.