New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists3
- Bo HorvatPoints3
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Josh NorrisAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:59Brayden Schenn Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (49), Bo Horvat (25)3–4
- P318:17Bowen Byram Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (28)2–4
- P316:59Peyton Krebs Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (31), Tage Thompson (40)2–3
- P313:39Anders Lee Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (24), Matthew Schaefer (35)2–2
- P32:40Tage Thompson Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (17), Jack Quinn (31)1–2
- P217:57Calum Ritchie Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (21), Bo Horvat (23)1–1
- P114:19Jack Quinn Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:19Jack Quinn Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (16)NYI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 60% → 75% +15BUF 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P217:57Calum Ritchie Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (21), Bo Horvat (23)NYI 1 – 1 BUF · NYI 22% → 43% +21NYI 22% → 43%+21 pts
- P32:40Tage Thompson Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (17), Jack Quinn (31)NYI 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 56% → 80% +24BUF 56% → 80%+24 pts
- P313:39Anders Lee Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (24), Matthew Schaefer (35)NYI 2 – 2 BUF · NYI 11% → 46% +35NYI 11% → 46%+35 pts
- P316:59Peyton Krebs Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (31), Tage Thompson (40)NYI 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 52% → 95% +43BUF 52% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 61%
- ML NYI +145 / BUF -175
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 67.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- BUF -156
- NYI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.6 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +125 Elo | BUF 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 65.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–18 | Road vs home | 23–146th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 19th of 321492 | Elo rating | 15505th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–36 | 43–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–24 | 16–21 |
| Underdog | 34–12 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 36–39 | 36–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–5 BUF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.