Seattle Kraken at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Kaapo KakkoAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Sabres- Peyton KrebsGoals1
- Zach BensonAssists1
- Rasmus DahlinPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jack Quinn Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Tage Thompson Goal Snap Shot0–2
- P311:39Peyton Krebs Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (26)2–2
- P215:55Rasmus Dahlin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (39), Jack Quinn (30)2–1
- P213:18Bobby McMann Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (22), Chandler Stephenson (29)2–0
- P112:42Chandler Stephenson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (21), Bobby McMann (17)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:42Chandler Stephenson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (21), Bobby McMann (17)SEA 1 – 0 BUF · SEA 38% → 54% +16SEA 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P213:18Bobby McMann Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (22), Chandler Stephenson (29)SEA 2 – 0 BUF · SEA 62% → 81% +18SEA 62% → 81%+18 pts
- P215:55Rasmus Dahlin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (39), Jack Quinn (30)SEA 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 18% → 36% +19BUF 18% → 36%+19 pts
- P311:39Peyton Krebs Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (26)SEA 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 20% → 55% +35BUF 20% → 55%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 64%
- ML SEA +164 / BUF -198
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 62.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -175
- SEA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | 0 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +88 Elo | BUF 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%4th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3215–20 | Road vs home | 22–146th of 32 |
| 29th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 27th of 321471 | Elo rating | 15495th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–27 | 43–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 39–21 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 31–40 | 36–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–2 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.