Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Justin SourdifGoals1
- Cole HutsonAssists2
- Justin SourdifPoints2
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Dylan Strome Goal Backhand1–0
- P38:54Dylan Strome Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (4), Alex Ovechkin (28)4–4
- P30:31Mitch Marner Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (26), Jack Eichel (53)3–4
- P213:18Jack Eichel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (26)3–3
- P211:03Rasmus Andersson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (52)3–2
- P210:38Nic Dowd Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P26:49Anthony Beauvillier Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Leonard (22), Justin Sourdif (17)3–0
- P21:55Justin Sourdif Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (27), Cole Hutson (3)2–0
- P16:06Hendrix Lapierre Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Miroshnichenko (1), Brandon Duhaime (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:55Justin Sourdif Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (27), Cole Hutson (3)WSH 2 – 0 VGK · WSH 61% → 77% +16WSH 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P211:03Rasmus Andersson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (52)WSH 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 18% → 35% +17VGK 18% → 35%+17 pts
- P213:18Jack Eichel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (26)WSH 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 34% → 56% +21VGK 34% → 56%+21 pts
- P30:31Mitch Marner Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (26), Jack Eichel (53)WSH 3 – 4 VGK · VGK 55% → 78% +23VGK 55% → 78%+23 pts
- P38:54Dylan Strome Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (4), Alex Ovechkin (28)WSH 4 – 4 VGK · WSH 17% → 46% +29WSH 17% → 46%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 58%
- ML WSH +130 / VGK -155
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 52.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +17 Elo | VGK 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 54.0%4th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 26th of 3214–21 | Road vs home | 16–2026th of 32 |
| 6th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 32 |
| 12th of 321511 | Elo rating | 149419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–35 | 28–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 15–43 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 31–42 | 37–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–1 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.