Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Rasmus AnderssonGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists1
- Rasmus AnderssonPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:42Mark Scheifele Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (49)1–4
- P210:29Rasmus Andersson Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Barbashev (30), Brett Howden (9)1–3
- P24:06Cole Perfetti Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (32), Dylan DeMelo (16)0–3
- P22:08Alex Iafallo Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (54)0–2
- P117:25Kyle Connor Goal (32) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (36), Mark Scheifele (53)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:25Kyle Connor Goal (32) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (36), Mark Scheifele (53)VGK 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 46% → 63% +17WPG 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P22:08Alex Iafallo Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (54)VGK 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 64% → 79% +15WPG 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P24:06Cole Perfetti Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (32), Dylan DeMelo (16)VGK 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 80% → 91% +11WPG 80% → 91%+11 pts
- P210:29Rasmus Andersson Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Barbashev (30), Brett Howden (9)VGK 1 – 3 WPG · VGK 7% → 17% +10VGK 7% → 17%+10 pts
- P318:42Mark Scheifele Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (49)VGK 1 – 4 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML VGK -135 / WPG +114
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 46.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -123
- WPG +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 2.6 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −3 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +22 Elo | WPG 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.1% | Shot share | 48.7%24th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%18th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 20th of 3216–20 | Road vs home | 17–1922nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Elo rating | 149518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–43 | 31–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–41 | 11–31 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 20–8 |
| Overs–unders | 36–35 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 6–1 WPG in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.