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Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN

Away

Oilers

36-28-9

4–3

at

Home

Golden Knights

32-26-15

EDM 44%VGK 56%

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T-Mobile Arena · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored EDM favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTVGK50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • OT3:10Evan Bouchard Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (80)4–3
  • P36:21Ivan Barbashev Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (25), Shea Theodore (26)3–3
  • P216:42Zach Hyman Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
  • P214:51Mark Stone Goal (23) Backhand, assists: none2–2
  • P27:27Connor McDavid Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (16), Mattias Ekholm (33)2–1
  • P24:09Mark Stone Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (51), Ivan Barbashev (31)1–1
  • P111:52Matt Savoie Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (79), Evan Bouchard (64)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P27:27Connor McDavid Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (16), Mattias Ekholm (33)EDM 2 – 1 VGK · EDM 45% → 65% +19
  2. P214:51Mark Stone Goal (23) Backhand, assists: noneEDM 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 32% → 54% +22
  3. P216:42Zach Hyman Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 3 – 2 VGK · EDM 46% → 69% +23
  4. P36:21Ivan Barbashev Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (25), Shea Theodore (26)EDM 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 25% → 53% +28
  5. OT3:10Evan Bouchard Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (80)EDM 4 – 3 VGK · EDM 49% → 98% +49

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 56%

LeanMiss
EDM 44%VGK 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
VGK 56%
ML EDM +120 / VGK -142
Pre-line forecast
VGK 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 51%
Ratings vs. market
−5.0 pts
VGK: Elo 51.4%, market 56.3%
Fair odds
VGK -129
EDM +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.1 – 3.4 VGK
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMVGKWhy
Team rating15231496Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2+3EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +10 EloVGK 51.4%
Market-implied ratingsVGK 58.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVGK 56.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 56.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatVGK
6th of 323.5Goals scored3.116th of 32
28th of 323.4Goals allowed3.120th of 32
14th of 32+0.1Margin0.016th of 32
5th of 3252.4%Shot share54.1%4th of 32
31st of 3288.0%Save percentage88.0%30th of 32
13th of 325–5Last 103–726th of 32
20th of 3217–20Road vs home16–1926th of 32
30th of 321496Opponent Elo149727th of 32
8th of 321523Elo rating149618th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersGolden Knights
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMVGK
Puck line28–4428–44
Last 105–54–6
Favorite20–3815–42
Underdog8–613–2
Overs–unders45–2736–36
Overs–unders, last 106–41–9

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 10–4 VGK in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.