Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis SanheimGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists2
- Travis SanheimPoints2
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists4
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:56Tom Wilson Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (9), Matt Roy (17)4–6
- P37:52Denver Barkey Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (10), Noah Cates (25)4–5
- P33:47Alex Ovechkin Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (29), Jakob Chychrun (32)3–5
- P30:33Christian Dvorak Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (39), Travis Sanheim (24)3–4
- P217:37Ryan Leonard Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (8), Jakob Chychrun (31)2–4
- P26:58Jakob Chychrun Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (23), Pierre-Luc Dubois (7)2–3
- P24:36Carl Grundstrom Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (37)2–2
- P20:39Travis Sanheim Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (38), Christian Dvorak (30)1–2
- P118:35Alex Ovechkin Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (16), Connor McMichael (28)0–2
- P114:59Tom Wilson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (6), Rasmus Sandin (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:59Tom Wilson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (6), Rasmus Sandin (23)PHI 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 53% → 69% +16WSH 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P24:36Carl Grundstrom Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (37)PHI 2 – 2 WSH · PHI 30% → 48% +18PHI 30% → 48%+18 pts
- P26:58Jakob Chychrun Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (23), Pierre-Luc Dubois (7)PHI 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 52% → 71% +19WSH 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P30:33Christian Dvorak Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (39), Travis Sanheim (24)PHI 3 – 4 WSH · PHI 9% → 25% +15PHI 9% → 25%+15 pts
- P33:47Alex Ovechkin Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (29), Jakob Chychrun (32)PHI 3 – 5 WSH · WSH 77% → 93% +15WSH 77% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML PHI +105 / WSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.7 – 2.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +2 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +56 Elo | WSH 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.5%4th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 7th of 3220–16 | Road vs home | 22–1610th of 32 |
| 6th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321485 | Elo rating | 151311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–25 | 39–35 |
| Last 10 | 10–0 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 20–27 |
| Underdog | 38–14 | 19–8 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36 | 32–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–7 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.