Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Jesper BrattAssists4
- Jack HughesPoints5
Scoring summary
- P317:54Dawson Mercer Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (46), Jack Hughes (44)3–7
- P312:16Jesper Bratt Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (35), Jack Hughes (43)3–6
- P39:33Tom Wilson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (24), Pierre-Luc Dubois (10)3–5
- P38:10Jack Hughes Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (45), Connor Brown (23)2–5
- P29:10Jack Hughes Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (44), Johnathan Kovacevic (7)2–4
- P118:19Dougie Hamilton Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (42), Jesper Bratt (43)2–3
- P19:47Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (24), Jakob Chychrun (33)2–2
- P18:15Cole Hutson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (12), Tom Wilson (28)1–2
- P17:37Dawson Mercer Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Timo Meier (17), Nico Hischier (34)0–2
- P15:22Cody Glass Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Lenni Hameenaho (5), Nick Bjugstad (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:22Cody Glass Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Lenni Hameenaho (5), Nick Bjugstad (3)WSH 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 52% → 67% +15NJ 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P18:15Cole Hutson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (12), Tom Wilson (28)WSH 1 – 2 NJ · WSH 20% → 33% +13WSH 20% → 33%+13 pts
- P19:47Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (24), Jakob Chychrun (33)WSH 2 – 2 NJ · WSH 33% → 48% +15WSH 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P118:19Dougie Hamilton Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (42), Jesper Bratt (43)WSH 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 52% → 69% +17NJ 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P29:10Jack Hughes Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (44), Johnathan Kovacevic (7)WSH 2 – 4 NJ · NJ 71% → 85% +15NJ 71% → 85%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 52%
- ML WSH +100 / NJ -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 50.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +5 Elo | NJ 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 52.1%6th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3215–21 | Road vs home | 19–1715th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 32 |
| 10th of 321516 | Elo rating | 148521st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–35 | 28–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–27 | 10–35 |
| Underdog | 19–8 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 33–42 | 33–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–4 NJ in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.