New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Connor BrownGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists1
- Connor BrownPoints1
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Adam FoxPoints2
Scoring summary
- P33:49Mika Zibanejad Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (15), Adam Fox (38)1–4
- P211:12Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Braden Schneider (15)1–3
- P20:51Connor Brown Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (33), Luke Hughes (29)1–2
- P113:39J.T. Miller Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (30), Adam Fox (37)0–2
- P18:14Conor Sheary Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Tye Kartye (12), Will Borgen (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:14Conor Sheary Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Tye Kartye (12), Will Borgen (10)NJ 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 47% → 62% +15NYR 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P113:39J.T. Miller Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (30), Adam Fox (37)NJ 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 63% → 78% +14NYR 63% → 78%+14 pts
- P20:51Connor Brown Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (33), Luke Hughes (29)NJ 1 – 2 NYR · NJ 20% → 35% +15NJ 20% → 35%+15 pts
- P211:12Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Braden Schneider (15)NJ 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 68% → 84% +16NYR 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P33:49Mika Zibanejad Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (15), Adam Fox (38)NJ 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 91% → 98% +7NYR 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML NJ -125 / NYR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NJ: Elo 46.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +22 Elo | NYR 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.926th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 46.4%30th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.3%7th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 13th of 3219–18 | Road vs home | 11–2530th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 32 |
| 20th of 321490 | Elo rating | 147026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–45 | 37–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–34 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40 | 35–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 5–5 NYR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.