Chicago Blackhawks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals2
- Anton FrondellAssists2
- Frank NazarPoints2
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:29Jack Hughes Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (32), Johnathan Kovacevic (6)3–5
- P314:51Jack Hughes Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (42), Jonas Siegenthaler (12)3–4
- P314:32Dougie Hamilton Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (41), Timo Meier (16)3–3
- P310:51Frank Nazar Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (38), Anton Frondell (4)3–2
- P215:48Simon Nemec Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (21), Nico Hischier (31)2–2
- P113:11Frank Nazar Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (14), Andre Burakovsky (21)2–1
- P111:15Connor Brown Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Luke Hughes (28), Jack Hughes (40)1–1
- P14:19Ilya Mikheyev Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Frondell (3), Louis Crevier (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:11Frank Nazar Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (14), Andre Burakovsky (21)CHI 2 – 1 NJ · CHI 41% → 57% +16CHI 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P215:48Simon Nemec Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (21), Nico Hischier (31)CHI 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 34% → 57% +22NJ 34% → 57%+22 pts
- P310:51Frank Nazar Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (38), Anton Frondell (4)CHI 3 – 2 NJ · CHI 46% → 80% +34CHI 46% → 80%+34 pts
- P314:32Dougie Hamilton Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (41), Timo Meier (16)CHI 3 – 3 NJ · NJ 13% → 53% +40NJ 13% → 53%+40 pts
- P314:51Jack Hughes Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (42), Jonas Siegenthaler (12)CHI 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 53% → 91% +38NJ 53% → 91%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 60%
- ML CHI +142 / NJ -170
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 60.5%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- NJ -152
- CHI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 3.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +1 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +74 Elo | NJ 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.7% | Shot share | 52.1%6th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 28th of 3214–23 | Road vs home | 18–1718th of 32 |
| 11th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321411 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–27 | 27–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 9–34 |
| Underdog | 46–24 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 31–42 | 32–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–5 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.