Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Mattias SamuelssonGoals1
- Peyton KrebsAssists1
- Mattias SamuelssonPoints1
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Ridly GreigAssists1
- Ridly GreigPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:42Shane Pinto Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P317:42Ridly Greig Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (22)1–3
- P35:55Lars Eller Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Artem Zub (23), Warren Foegele (4)1–2
- P215:18Dylan Cozens Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Brady Tkachuk (32), Ridly Greig (19)1–1
- P28:49Mattias Samuelsson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (28), Peyton Krebs (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:49Mattias Samuelsson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (28), Peyton Krebs (26)BUF 1 – 0 OTT · BUF 48% → 68% +20BUF 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P215:18Dylan Cozens Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Brady Tkachuk (32), Ridly Greig (19)BUF 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 30% → 51% +22OTT 30% → 51%+22 pts
- P35:55Lars Eller Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Artem Zub (23), Warren Foegele (4)BUF 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 51% → 78% +27OTT 51% → 78%+27 pts
- P317:42Ridly Greig Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (22)BUF 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 97% → >99% +3OTT 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P318:42Shane Pinto Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 1 – 4 OTT · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML BUF +100 / OTT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 51.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -109
- BUF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +7 Elo | OTT 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 87.7%32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–15 | Road vs home | 18–1720th of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 4th of 321552 | Elo rating | 15239th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–32 | 33–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–22 | 18–35 |
| Underdog | 27–10 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 37–38 | 40–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 8–2 OTT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.