Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Ryan LeonardGoals2
- Ilya ProtasAssists2
- Ilya ProtasPoints3
Penguins- Noel AcciariGoals1
- Ryan SheaAssists2
- Ryan SheaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:22Alex Ovechkin Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (31)6–3
- P35:56Ilya Protas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (7), Dylan Strome (39)5–3
- P216:50Kevin Hayes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (28)4–3
- P211:58Ryan Leonard Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (6), Justin Sourdif (20)4–2
- P211:47Noel Acciari Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Elmer Soderblom (6), Samuel Girard (16)3–2
- P28:08Tom Wilson Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Protas (3), Aliaksei Protas (27)3–1
- P26:02Ryan Leonard Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (13), Connor McMichael (31)2–1
- P22:05Anthony Mantha Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (27), Thomas Novak (26)1–1
- P21:39Aliaksei Protas Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Protas (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:39Aliaksei Protas Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Protas (2)WSH 1 – 0 PIT · WSH 57% → 73% +17WSH 57% → 73%+17 pts
- P22:05Anthony Mantha Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (27), Thomas Novak (26)WSH 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 27% → 43% +17PIT 27% → 43%+17 pts
- P26:02Ryan Leonard Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (13), Connor McMichael (31)WSH 2 – 1 PIT · WSH 56% → 74% +18WSH 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P216:50Kevin Hayes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (28)WSH 4 – 3 PIT · PIT 10% → 24% +14PIT 10% → 24%+14 pts
- P35:56Ilya Protas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (7), Dylan Strome (39)WSH 5 – 3 PIT · WSH 80% → 95% +14WSH 80% → 95%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML WSH -155 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 44.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 3.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +36 Elo | PIT 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 51.5%8th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.3%23rd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3216–23 | Road vs home | 19–2022nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 12th of 321517 | Elo rating | 152111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–37 | 47–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–28 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 34–12 |
| Overs–unders | 36–43 | 46–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–5 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.