Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Martin FehervaryGoals1
- Martin FehervaryAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints2
Maple LeafsScoring summary
- P316:10Cole Hutson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (26), Ilya Protas (1)4–0
- P22:53Martin Fehervary Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (38), Justin Sourdif (19)3–0
- P20:40Ryan Leonard Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (30)2–0
- P113:22Dylan Strome Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (13), Martin Fehervary (20)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:22Dylan Strome Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (13), Martin Fehervary (20)WSH 1 – 0 TOR · WSH 57% → 73% +15WSH 57% → 73%+15 pts
- P20:40Ryan Leonard Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (30)WSH 2 – 0 TOR · WSH 73% → 86% +13WSH 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P22:53Martin Fehervary Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (38), Justin Sourdif (19)WSH 3 – 0 TOR · WSH 86% → 94% +8WSH 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P316:10Cole Hutson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (26), Ilya Protas (1)WSH 4 – 0 TOR · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML WSH -155 / TOR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 48.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 3.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +9 Elo | TOR 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 45.1%31st of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3215–23 | Road vs home | 18–2024th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15042nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321511 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–37 | 33–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 7–25 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 26–19 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42 | 44–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–4 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.