Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals2
- Matthew KniesAssists2
- Matthew KniesPoints4
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Adrian KempeAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints4
Scoring summary
- OT2:33Quinton Byfield Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (53), Adrian Kempe (37)6–7
- P313:29Matthew Knies Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (38), Matias Maccelli (24)6–6
- P39:37Nicholas Robertson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (8)5–6
- P37:22Alex Laferriere Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (16)4–6
- P36:14Samuel Helenius Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Ward (4), Cody Ceci (8)4–5
- P35:46Adrian Kempe Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (52), Joel Edmundson (19)4–4
- P219:47Easton Cowan Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (37), Matthew Knies (41)4–3
- P214:53Artemi Panarin Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (31), Adrian Kempe (36)3–3
- P29:18John Tavares Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (47), Matthew Knies (40)3–2
- P23:55Adrian Kempe Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (15)2–2
- P21:11Quinton Byfield Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jared Wright (3), Trevor Moore (15)2–1
- P113:42Steven Lorentz Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P14:19Matthew Knies Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:47Easton Cowan Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (37), Matthew Knies (41)TOR 4 – 3 LA · TOR 41% → 66% +25TOR 41% → 66%+25 pts
- P35:46Adrian Kempe Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (52), Joel Edmundson (19)TOR 4 – 4 LA · LA 28% → 57% +29LA 28% → 57%+29 pts
- P36:14Samuel Helenius Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Ward (4), Cody Ceci (8)TOR 4 – 5 LA · LA 57% → 83% +26LA 57% → 83%+26 pts
- P313:29Matthew Knies Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (38), Matias Maccelli (24)TOR 6 – 6 LA · TOR 11% → 45% +34TOR 11% → 45%+34 pts
- OT2:33Quinton Byfield Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (53), Adrian Kempe (37)TOR 6 – 7 LA · LA 53% → 97% +44LA 53% → 97%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 64%
- ML TOR +170 / LA -205
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- LA: Elo 55.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LA -181
- TOR +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −1 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +36 Elo | LA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.3% | Shot share | 50.6%12th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 29th of 3214–24 | Road vs home | 11–2631st of 32 |
| 1st of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321481 | Elo rating | 147526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–44 | 28–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 9–36 |
| Underdog | 25–19 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 43–33 | 35–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.