Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints2
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Joel ArmiaAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Luke Evangelista Goal Backhand1–0
- P39:57Joel Armia Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Wright (2), Brian Dumoulin (15)4–4
- P215:45Scott Laughton Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (12), Mikey Anderson (14)4–3
- P213:29Adrian Kempe Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (18), Anze Kopitar (24)4–2
- P28:19Steven Stamkos Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (43), Roman Josi (37)4–1
- P26:09Adrian Kempe Goal (29) Deflected, assists: Artemi Panarin (51)3–1
- P22:02Jonathan Marchessault Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (12), Justin Barron (9)3–0
- P13:47Zachary L'Heureux Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brady Skjei (22)2–0
- P10:52Filip Forsberg Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (18), Erik Haula (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:52Filip Forsberg Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (18), Erik Haula (22)NSH 1 – 0 LA · NSH 47% → 61% +15NSH 47% → 61%+15 pts
- P13:47Zachary L'Heureux Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brady Skjei (22)NSH 2 – 0 LA · NSH 62% → 75% +13NSH 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P22:02Jonathan Marchessault Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (12), Justin Barron (9)NSH 3 – 0 LA · NSH 80% → 91% +10NSH 80% → 91%+10 pts
- P215:45Scott Laughton Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (12), Mikey Anderson (14)NSH 4 – 3 LA · LA 14% → 30% +16LA 14% → 30%+16 pts
- P39:57Joel Armia Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Wright (2), Brian Dumoulin (15)NSH 4 – 4 LA · LA 20% → 51% +32LA 20% → 51%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 53%
- ML NSH +105 / LA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- LA: Elo 52.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.7 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +14 Elo | LA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 50.6%12th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 26th of 3214–21 | Road vs home | 11–2531st of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150021st of 32 |
| 27th of 321468 | Elo rating | 147725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–34 | 28–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 9–35 |
| Underdog | 33–19 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40 | 34–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 4–3 LA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.