Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals2
- Drew DoughtyAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Flames- Zayne ParekhGoals1
- Victor OlofssonAssists1
- Olli MaattaPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Artemi Panarin Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Morgan Frost Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P313:02Zayne Parekh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (19), Matvei Gridin (9)2–2
- P30:17Quinton Byfield Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (13), Alex Laferriere (17)2–1
- P214:50Olli Maatta Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (16), Ryan Strome (11)1–1
- P12:35Quinton Byfield Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Joel Armia (11), Drew Doughty (15)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:35Quinton Byfield Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Joel Armia (11), Drew Doughty (15)LA 1 – 0 CGY · LA 57% → 71% +14LA 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P214:50Olli Maatta Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (16), Ryan Strome (11)LA 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 25% → 45% +21CGY 25% → 45%+21 pts
- P30:17Quinton Byfield Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (13), Alex Laferriere (17)LA 2 – 1 CGY · LA 54% → 77% +23LA 54% → 77%+23 pts
- P313:02Zayne Parekh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (19), Matvei Gridin (9)LA 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 13% → 48% +35CGY 13% → 48%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 57%
- ML LA -148 / CGY +124
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- LA: Elo 48.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -134
- CGY +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 2.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | 0 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +12 Elo | CGY 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 49.5%17th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%7th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 14th of 3218–18 | Road vs home | 19–1614th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149631st of 32 |
| 25th of 321478 | Elo rating | 145529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–43 | 38–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–32 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders | 33–37 | 36–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–6 CGY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.