St. Louis Blues at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints1
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Trevor MoorePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:56Trevor Moore Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (23), Drew Doughty (17)1–2
- P316:07Robert Thomas Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Philip Broberg (23), Dylan Holloway (21)1–1
- P216:59Adrian Kempe Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (19), Artemi Panarin (50)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:59Adrian Kempe Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (19), Artemi Panarin (50)STL 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 76% +21LA 55% → 76%+21 pts
- P316:07Robert Thomas Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Philip Broberg (23), Dylan Holloway (21)STL 1 – 1 LA · STL 7% → 48% +41STL 7% → 48%+41 pts
- OT1:56Trevor Moore Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (23), Drew Doughty (17)STL 1 – 2 LA · LA 52% → 95% +43LA 52% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 58%
- ML STL +130 / LA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- LA: Elo 53.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 3.0 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −6 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +22 Elo | LA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 50.6%12th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 31st of 3213–23 | Road vs home | 10–2531st of 32 |
| 29th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150021st of 32 |
| 21st of 321486 | Elo rating | 147525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–33 | 28–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–22 | 9–34 |
| Underdog | 35–11 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–39 | 34–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–4 LA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.