St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Cam FowlerGoals1
- Jake NeighboursAssists2
- Jake NeighboursPoints2
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals2
- Will SmithAssists2
- Alexander WennbergPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:38Adam Gaudette Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (15), Vincent Desharnais (6)4–5
- P312:53Cam Fowler Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (23), Pius Suter (13)4–4
- P219:34Philip Broberg Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (20), Robert Thomas (33)3–4
- P210:13Alexander Wennberg Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (28), Will Smith (30)2–4
- P119:04Macklin Celebrini Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (5), Will Smith (29)2–3
- P116:39Pavel Buchnevich Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Jake Neighbours (16)2–2
- P113:25Macklin Celebrini Goal (37) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (28), Alexander Wennberg (33)1–2
- P18:30Alexander Wennberg Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (63), Tyler Toffoli (27)1–1
- P15:28Theo Lindstein Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:25Macklin Celebrini Goal (37) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (28), Alexander Wennberg (33)STL 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 50% → 66% +16SJ 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P116:39Pavel Buchnevich Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Jake Neighbours (16)STL 2 – 2 SJ · STL 33% → 50% +17STL 33% → 50%+17 pts
- P119:04Macklin Celebrini Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (5), Will Smith (29)STL 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 50% → 67% +17SJ 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P312:53Cam Fowler Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (23), Pius Suter (13)STL 4 – 4 SJ · STL 14% → 50% +36STL 14% → 50%+36 pts
- P319:38Adam Gaudette Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (15), Vincent Desharnais (6)STL 4 – 5 SJ · SJ 50% → >99% +50SJ 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 50%
- ML STL -110 / SJ -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- SJ: Elo 42.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SJ -100
- STL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 2.8 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −16 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +54 Elo | STL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.8%26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 28th of 3213–22 | Road vs home | 17–1721st of 32 |
| 29th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 32 |
| 21st of 321489 | Elo rating | 142730th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–32 | 44–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–21 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 35–11 | 42–22 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39 | 34–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–4 SJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.