Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Jake McCabeGoals1
- Dakota JoshuaAssists1
- Jake McCabePoints1
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Dylan HollowayPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:24Philip Broberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (14), Robert Thomas (32)1–5
- P39:10Dylan Holloway Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (22), Jake Neighbours (13)1–4
- P36:46Pius Suter Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (31)1–3
- P35:07Jake McCabe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (7), Jacob Quillan (1)1–2
- P210:35Justin Holl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (21), Pavel Buchnevich (27)0–2
- P25:21Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (24), Dylan Holloway (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:21Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (24), Dylan Holloway (19)TOR 0 – 1 STL · STL 55% → 73% +18STL 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P210:35Justin Holl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (21), Pavel Buchnevich (27)TOR 0 – 2 STL · STL 74% → 88% +14STL 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P35:07Jake McCabe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (7), Jacob Quillan (1)TOR 1 – 2 STL · TOR 6% → 21% +15TOR 6% → 21%+15 pts
- P36:46Pius Suter Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (31)TOR 1 – 3 STL · STL 81% → 95% +14STL 81% → 95%+14 pts
- P39:10Dylan Holloway Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (22), Jake Neighbours (13)TOR 1 – 4 STL · STL 96% → >99% +3STL 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML TOR +124 / STL -148
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- STL: Elo 54.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -134
- TOR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.5 – 3.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −5 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +32 Elo | STL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.5% | Shot share | 47.5%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.3%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 29th of 3213–22 | Road vs home | 17–1924th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149729th of 32 |
| 20th of 321489 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–42 | 39–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 4–21 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 35–11 |
| Overs–unders | 41–32 | 32–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.