Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Mikey AndersonAssists2
- Trevor MoorePoints2
CanucksScoring summary
- P317:36Quinton Byfield Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (13), Drew Doughty (16)4–0
- P219:21Artemi Panarin Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (34)3–0
- P21:21Trevor Moore Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (12), Alex Laferriere (18)2–0
- P117:34Scott Laughton Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Quinton Byfield (24), Trevor Moore (14)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:34Scott Laughton Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Quinton Byfield (24), Trevor Moore (14)LA 1 – 0 VAN · LA 59% → 75% +16LA 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P21:21Trevor Moore Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (12), Alex Laferriere (18)LA 2 – 0 VAN · LA 75% → 87% +12LA 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P219:21Artemi Panarin Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (34)LA 3 – 0 VAN · LA 92% → 98% +6LA 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P317:36Quinton Byfield Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (13), Drew Doughty (16)LA 4 – 0 VAN · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML LA -175 / VAN +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- LA: Elo 55.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -156
- VAN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.1 – 2.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −6 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +40 Elo | LA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 46.9%27th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 14th of 3218–19 | Road vs home | 8–2932nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 140732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–44 | 33–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–33 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 5–3 VAN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.