Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals2
- John CarlsonAssists3
- John CarlsonPoints3
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Filip HronekPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:55Troy Terry Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (24), Leo Carlsson (36)5–3
- P35:45Mason McTavish Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (41), Alex Killorn (16)4–3
- P32:22Drew O'Connor Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (18)3–3
- P31:01Mikael Granlund Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (23), John Carlson (40)3–2
- P213:13Brock Boeser Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (33), Elias Pettersson (28)2–2
- P27:50Mikael Granlund Goal (15) Batted, assists: Leo Carlsson (35), John Carlson (39)2–1
- P25:26Alex Killorn Goal (12) Backhand, assists: John Carlson (38), Beckett Sennecke (34)1–1
- P15:45Jake DeBrusk Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (27), Filip Hronek (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:26Alex Killorn Goal (12) Backhand, assists: John Carlson (38), Beckett Sennecke (34)ANA 1 – 1 VAN · ANA 40% → 59% +19ANA 40% → 59%+19 pts
- P213:13Brock Boeser Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (33), Elias Pettersson (28)ANA 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 23% → 42% +19VAN 23% → 42%+19 pts
- P31:01Mikael Granlund Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (23), John Carlson (40)ANA 3 – 2 VAN · ANA 57% → 79% +23ANA 57% → 79%+23 pts
- P32:22Drew O'Connor Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (18)ANA 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 20% → 44% +23VAN 20% → 44%+23 pts
- P35:45Mason McTavish Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (41), Alex Killorn (16)ANA 4 – 3 VAN · ANA 56% → 81% +26ANA 56% → 81%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 62%
- ML ANA -180 / VAN +150
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- ANA: Elo 57.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ANA -161
- VAN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −6 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +49 Elo | ANA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 46.9%27th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 20th of 3216–19 | Road vs home | 8–2832nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Elo rating | 141132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–36 | 33–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–18 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 30–18 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders | 41–29 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–8 VAN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.